Can decarbonisation be commercialised?

ARE RETAIL LANDLORDS MISSING OUT ON ENERGY RELATED REVENUE STREAMS THROUGH TECHNOLOGICAL INTERVENTIONS THAT INTENSIFY, DENSIFY AND REPURPOSE MARGINALISED AREAS?

THE POWER OF POWER

The sustainability and decarbonisation agenda is often seen as a capital expenditure nightmare, with many landlords pondering whether there are meaningful financial returns. While there are environmental, social and governance (ESG) credentials to be gained, this may be seen to provide little immediate value. With retail vacancy at around 15%—and possibly heading towards a quarter of stock by the end of the decade—a great deal of retail space is being underutilised and the retail market is running inefficiently. Repurposing space to alternative property uses will continue to address these issues, but there are other options that allow for other revenue streams.

From an engineering standpoint, decarbonisation can be commercialised; with opportunities available to landlords and investors that can see a return on their investment, while improving their sustainability credentials.

One thing many retail landlords do have is space, either from excess voids, downsizing anchors, or closed department stores. Additionally, there are not just spaces within buildings to consider, there are retail parks and shopping centres with underutilised parking areas. Whether internal or external, there are opportunities for this to be better utilised and therefore commercialised.

By understanding both the suitability of location and the availability of infrastructure for a site, it’s possible to diversify the income stream while reducing its carbon impact and improving the return on asset values.

As we move towards reducing the impact of the built environment, the National Grid is struggling to meet the power demands of our ever-changing energy landscape. Due largely to the growing uptake of electric vehicles and the shift from gas boilers to heat pumps, the demand required from the Grid has increased significantly. Consequently, we’re seeing escalating costs for customers wanting a new or increased electrical supply and a major challenge in the grid’s capacity to meet surging demand. The waiting time to upgrade can also be lengthy, up to three years in some cases for as little as 2MVA. For context, that would serve about 100,000sqft of internal retail space with electricity.

It is not just the big cities that will see new homes built in the centre. Yes it is most visible and prominent in places like Manchester and London, but as the data shows, smaller towns will also be delivering lots more housing in the very heart of their communities. This includes those with struggling town centres up and down the country.

Developers have so far favoured large strategic sites in the major cities, but government funding initiatives are starting to increase the viability in smaller places and we are seeing an increase in appetite from niche developers seeking to tackle the challenges in smaller and regional locations.

There is huge volatility in wholesale gas markets influencing all energy prices as well as increasing demand for green electricity. Both factors push towards financial benefits for self-reliance and production.

WHERE’S THE OPPORTUNITY?

Many retail landlords already have connection agreements in place for power supply. The infrastructure is already there, serving their existing sites. And often, the power loads have historically been overestimated at design stage compared to actual in-use consumption. Infact their agreements for power supplies probably outweigh their current requirements.

By enquiring with your power provider, you can see if your supply could be increased for minimal cost. Where there’s capacity, there’s an open opportunity to seize.

Power connections could be used to charge batteries, buying and selling from the grid at high and low periods, and generating revenue through tariffs offered by National Grid and the Government to help smooth our ever-bumpier grid. The power could be used to run electrical vehicle (EV) charging points; offering both a revenue stream and a reason to drive footfall and dwell time. These same points could be leased out to overnight EV fleet charging, making use of parking spaces when there are no shoppers present. All those EV delivery vans need to charge somewhere and often it’s not at HQ.

If we then start to consider fibre and data connections, this opens up another potential revenue stream in edge data centres: small localised high-power facilities. These are popping up across the country and with the anticipated arrival of autonomous vehicles edge data centre capacity will be key to them operating effectively.

With our lives becoming more and more reliant on power and data, if you have access to both, and the space to house an alternative use, there’s high potential to develop alternative and additional revenue streams to the traditional retail offer.

RETAIL APPLICATIONS

Working directly for an owner of 17 retail parks across the UK (6.6million sqft site area and 1.9million sqft GIA) we’ve recently assessed site-suitability to incorporate ‘smart energy’ technologies across their portfolio and maximise these sites’ return on investment.

The engineering suitability for a range of use classes were assessed, including: on-site energy generation (solar photovoltaic (PV)), battery storage, EV charging (private, public and fleet), last mile logistics, e-mobility hub, edge data centre, and even dark kitchens or vertical farms.

Across the portfolio, two thirds of schemes were identified to have a ‘high opportunity’, with infrastructure and layout favourable for logistical and mobility use classes, as well as sufficient power capacity at the local electrical substation and building roof space for solar PV.

The potential of these sites to generate additional revenue was compelling and found:

  • Potential returns on investment of 70% in 4 years by installing as few as 22 EV charge points and up to 877% over 14 years with 150 EV charge points, based on daily public use.
  • From renewable energy generation exported to the grid, a 112% potential return over 15 years, as well as avoiding the equivalent of 3,068 tonnes of CO2.
  • Indicative rate of return of 13-15% over 25 years for a battery storage installation.

ALTERNATIVE USES FOR RETAIL SPACE

Much of our work to date has focussed on the retail warehousing sector. However, the same principle is applicable to major high streets and shopping centres. Underutilised back-of-house areas, where sufficient power and fibre are accessible, present prime opportunities. These installs also produce huge amounts of heat that can then be utilised as ‘low carbon heat’. Heat-transfer systems are being employed by adjacent property uses to mitigate one need with another with cost and carbon savings for both parties. In one example, a major UK retail landlord installed such a system to address the need to cool its hotel rooms with the need to heat the health club swimming pool.

Technology is usually front and centre to the solutions – as it advances rapidly, the cost of access is reducing in tandem. Furthermore, the amount of space required to deliver some of these applications can be very flexible and is therefore suitable to a large number of retail environments or shop units.

Fundamentally, there’s a great deal of unrealised opportunity in retail portfolios due to the needs imposed by climate change, the acceleration of consumer trends, a global pandemic, and geopolitical tensions. Most pressing is the need to move away from fossil fuels, the growing role of electric vehicles, bringing more ‘variable’ renewables on-line with greater storage capacity to smooth the grid, and a greater need for energy self-sufficiency. Spiralling energy prices further support any opportunity to generate, supply, or store energy.

For those whose space has been impacted by occupational headwinds, alternative energy solutions can help unlock the path to net zero and provide alternative and additional revenue streams. Decarbonisation can be commercialised: empowering retail landlords to do the right thing by the planet and the bottom line.

1Octopus Energy 2021

THE BENEFITS

ONSITE GENERATION (SOLAR PV)

Electricity consumed on site acts to reduce the amount of grid imports, resulting in a cost saving at c.40p/kWh (anticipated rate for coming months). Typical costs for large, commercial roof-mounted PV are c.£750+ per kWp installed, increasing for smaller installations. Surplus electricity exported back to the grid will receive revenue of c.15p/kWh or higher if aggregated and sold via a power purchase agreement (PPA) (12 month prices, likely due to increase, 20-25yr pricing currently around 12p/kWh).

Installing PV on a retail site provides opportunities to sell renewable energy to tenants. Both the electrification of transport and the growing demand for low and zero carbon operations provide a great opportunity to attract higher value tenants, while returning greater profits on assets. If fully utilised, a PV system would pay back via avoided grid import costs in circa <3 years. If only half of generated energy is consumed on site and the remaining exported, the payback would be circa <5 years. Through the use of Smart Grids we can ensure that all energy is consumed onsite in order to maximise the value of power generated.

BATTERY STORAGE

The Grid is so constrained by the energy transition, that the UK needs 20GW of energy storage to reach net zero by 2030. That’s the amount of energy that would power over one billion sqft of department stores. A number of ownership and operating models can be employed on a battery storage asset, unlocking revenues with different timeframes and risk profiles. Looking at an ownoperate model, Hydrock’s aggregation partners have a proven track record in delivering around £100,000 per MW per annum. While this serves as a baseline for achieved revenue, it’s common to see an uplift of 25-50% on top of this achieved revenue. Alternatively, rental revenue for sites can be in the region of £30k-40k per annum for a project of a good size (e.g. 20MW, requiring roughly 2 acres) and higher for larger battery systems. Battery storage offers an internal rate of return of over 10% in many cases.

EV CHARGING

Typical costs for a 22kW charge point are around £5k inclusive of infrastructural works and installation, excluding grid connection cost. Higher rate ‘rapid’ chargers have significantly higher capital costs, with a 50kW charge point costing about £48k, excluding grid connection cost. Several revenue opportunities exist for EV charging, depending on the business model utilised.

For example, public EV charging offers a very attractive return on investment, with a typical payback on investment of around two years.

FLEET CHARGING

Revenue rates can be increased by ensuring that site infrastructure is enabled for Last Mile Logistics or other transport fleets. The provision of power to charge points can unlock significant returns; with numerous business models for the delivery of electricity at charge points. The Energy Saving Trust surmise that 33% of all urban deliveries can be carried out by cargo bikes or e-cargo bikes. Smaller vehicles such as these have an annual running cost of around £300, compared to £1,450 for a small e-van and £6,100 for a small diesel van. Capital costs are also significantly less for these smaller vehicles.

“Installed in the UK, PV panels should become carbon negative within five years.”

Mike Berners-Lee